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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.